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Why different sociological survey companies give us contradictory data about the rating of the politicians, the candidates, and, on the election day, we have a totally different picture from the those drawn during the election campaigns? Who or what influences on the results of opinion polls and what is the role of the media in this process? Nadine Gogu, Executive Director of the Independent Journalism Center (IJC), the moderator of this week’s broadcast, discussed about this issue with her guests - Alina Țurcanu, editor, Radio Free Europe, and Arcadie Barbăroșie, director of the Institute for Public Policy (IPP).
Watch this broadcast to find out which are the three main control questions to ask ourselves when two sociological companies tell us different things about the same politician at the same time – while one company substantially rises him/her in the polls, the other shows him/her spectacularly down. Why are the polls conducted by phone or via the Internet less credible?
According to IPP Director, if the survey is financed by a media institution, it is even less credible, because, under the present conditions in the Republic of Moldova, the mass-media do not have financial resources to conduct opinion polls. “It means that the resources came from elsewhere and were channelled through the respective TV station”, Arcadie Barbăroșie stated.
As far as the role of the media in financing and, particularly, in interpreting the public opinion polls was concerned, the journalist Alina Țurcanu expressed some doubts: “When you relate to what the papers publish afterwards and see that the politician X has suddenly acceded to the first position or you see a spectacular rise, then you realize who has in fact ordered the surveys”, Alina Țurcanu said.
Being asked what she thinks about the fake polls and if it’s true that some sociological companies disseminate the data depending on who and how much pays, the journalist mentioned that “if you hold a media institution and, moreover, if you have a TV holding, then not just the survey, but the media also go into action. This fact may explain the wish of the politicians in societies like ours to hold some media, as a tool for influence on masses of people, for manipulation”.
Arcadie Barbăroșie has explained what the 3 percent margin of error means in polls with a sample of 1 100 -1 200 respondents; why it is not fair to compare the results of a survey with the results of the election and, not least, why he has a positive attitude towards the sociological surveys.
We remind you that “Media Azi” broadcast is a product of the Independent Journalism Centre and can be viewed on Media Azi, Mediacritica websites and on YouTube.
